We live in interesting times…

59% YES for Independent Scotland


Although the title statement of this blog post is mathematically possible, a pinch of reality tends to mitigate against the chances of that result. A party winning all 73 Scottish Parliament constituencies requires about a 95% vote share in the regions to be certain of all 56 list seats, or for a party without any constituency seats the figure is 86%+. Unless you believe such vote shares are possible outside of Belarus, winning all list seats for YES cannot be achieved by any tactical voting uncomplicated enough to succeed.

We have undertaken a thorough regional list study that uses the psephological data of actual votes cast, both in the past and in the most recent ballots, combined with accurate mathematical modelling. It reveals how the mechanics of the voting system,Seats used for the election of 56 of the 129 MSPs in the Scottish Parliament, are impacted by that data…

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